| If you are trying to make money handicapping horse | | | | Good judgment is crucial if you are going to make |
| races you have probably realized that it is very | | | | money betting on horse races. That means |
| difficult and that things are seldom what they appear | | | | understanding that anything you look at is usually not |
| to be. You're not alone. Horse racing handicapping is | | | | to be seen in black and white. You need to |
| one of the most frustrating pursuits. The reason is | | | | understand that things are more likely best viewed |
| that we are trying to predict the future and it | | | | as shades of gray. An example would be the 30 day |
| involves many animals and people. Each participant | | | | rule I mentioned above. It might be better to |
| has a life story that is filled with the usual ups and | | | | express it as a ratio of likelihood. Maybe 80 percent |
| downs and therefore, you are trying to figure out | | | | of the horses who have had a layoff of over 30 |
| what will happen to each one of them. | | | | days need a race or two to get back into their |
| When you pick a winner you also pick losers. In other | | | | winning form, but that means that one out of five |
| words, when you bet on a horse, you bet that all | | | | will beat you. |
| the others will lose. Looking at it from that angle, it | | | | If you bear those shades of gray in mind it will open |
| makes you realize how difficult this is. That is why | | | | the door to seeing a race as a set of possibilities. |
| we scour the past performances looking for a reason | | | | Possibilities and probability are closely related. While |
| to bet on a horse or throw it out of our | | | | there may be a possibility of something happening, in |
| considerations. | | | | order to put a fair odds value on it, you need to |
| Unfortunately, few things in this business of betting | | | | know the probability as well. That is where those |
| on horses for profit are reliable. While it may be true | | | | shades of gray become important. |
| that most horses do not win if they haven't had a | | | | The more possibilities of your horse getting beaten |
| race for a tightener in the last 30 days, it doesn't | | | | the darker the shade of gray and the murkier the |
| mean that no horses win without a tightener. Just | | | | outcome of the race becomes. If you see too much |
| look over the past performances and you will see | | | | gray and not enough light, it is better to pass the |
| that is only a guideline, not a rule. | | | | race and look for a bet with fewer chances of failure. |