| What makes one bet a good one and another bet a | | | | showed a fast last quarter or finished within a few |
| bad one when betting on harness races? It doesn't | | | | lengths of the winner. Good trainers can move a |
| really matter what the contest is, a good wager is | | | | horse like this up and win. |
| always one that is profitable. What makes a wager | | | | The win probability isn't the only factor that makes it |
| profitable is the fact that the horse wins more often | | | | an attractive wager. The real key is that the bettors |
| than the crowd thinks it will and therefore, it is | | | | will under value it. That goes back to the fact that |
| undervalued. | | | | the horse seems to be racing against tougher horses. |
| The perception of the average harness racing | | | | While that may be true, if the horse is moving up in |
| handicapper is that a horse dropping in class is a | | | | its form cycle, the improvement in its ability may |
| better bet than a horse moving up in class. That just | | | | offset the tougher field it is racing against. |
| isn't true, because best bets are the ones that make | | | | If you find a horse that is lightly raced, and therefore |
| money and horses dropping in class are usually | | | | not worn out, and that has a good trainer, meaning |
| overbet. The wagers that make money are the ones | | | | one with a high win percentage, then a move up in |
| that go against conventional handicapping logic. | | | | class may signal that the trainer feels his or her horse |
| If you follow the races and keep track of which | | | | is rounding into form and ready to take on the |
| horses win and what the trainer moves are, you'll find | | | | better horses. If the odds are right, this can be the |
| that horses that have a strong race at a lower class | | | | best bet in harness racing. |
| level often move up and win. It is often a horse that | | | | |